{"id":33624,"date":"2025-12-09T19:45:20","date_gmt":"2025-12-09T22:45:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/agenciainfra.com\/blog\/?p=33624"},"modified":"2025-12-10T16:54:29","modified_gmt":"2025-12-10T19:54:29","slug":"ppsa-contratos-de-partilha-vao-atrair-us-71-bilhoes-ate-2030","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/agenciainfra.com\/blog\/ppsa-contratos-de-partilha-vao-atrair-us-71-bilhoes-ate-2030\/","title":{"rendered":"PPSA: Contratos de partilha v\u00e3o atrair US$ 71 bilh\u00f5es at\u00e9 2030"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Gabriel Vasconcelos, da Ag\u00eancia iNFRA<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A PPSA (Pr\u00e9-Sal Petr\u00f3leo) estima que os investimentos totais em campos de petr\u00f3leo comerciais do pr\u00e9-sal regidos pelo regime de partilha vai chegar a US$ 71 bilh\u00f5es, ou R$ 386 bilh\u00f5es no c\u00e2mbio atual, nos pr\u00f3ximos cinco anos at\u00e9 2030. Esse montante foi anunciado junto a uma s\u00e9rie de previs\u00f5es da empresa p\u00fablica, que gere os contratos dessas \u00e1reas e administra o \u00f3leo pertencente \u00e0 Uni\u00e3o, nesta quarta-feira (9), durante seu F\u00f3rum T\u00e9cnico de 2025, no Rio de Janeiro.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Segundo a diretora t\u00e9cnica da PPSA, Tabita Loureiro, os investimentos do per\u00edodo devem ter um pico em 2026, com US$ 20,2 bilh\u00f5es de capex para as opera\u00e7\u00f5es no pr\u00e9-sal, patamar que ter\u00e1 ligeira redu\u00e7\u00e3o em 2027, para US$ 18,9 bilh\u00f5es e, depois, uma queda relevante para US$ 12,5 bilh\u00f5es e US$ 11,7 bilh\u00f5es em 2028 e 2029 respectivamente. No \u00faltimo ano do per\u00edodo considerado, 2030, devem ser investidos cerca de US$ 7,7 bilh\u00f5es no pr\u00e9-sal. No ano corrente de 2025, o investimento a ser efetivado, US$ 16,3 bilh\u00f5es, ficou 7,3% abaixo do montante anteriormente previsto pela PPSA, de US$ 17,6 bilh\u00f5es.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

O capex do pr\u00e9-sal em cinco anos est\u00e3o relacionados \u00e0 introdu\u00e7\u00e3o de sete novos FPSO (navios-plataforma) na Bacia de Santos, nos campos de B\u00fazios, que receber\u00e1 mais quatro unidades no bi\u00eanio 2026-2027, al\u00e9m das novas plataformas dos campos de Gato do Mato, Atapu e S\u00e9pia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A julgar pelos integrantes dos cons\u00f3rcios donos dos neg\u00f3cios, a maior parte dos investimentos ser\u00e3o desembolsados por Petrobras, Shell e TotalEnergies, al\u00e9m de empresas com participa\u00e7\u00f5es menores ou pontuais, caso das chinesas CNOOC e CNODC em B\u00fazios, a Petronas em S\u00e9pia, e a Ecopetrol em Gato do Mato.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Novos Po\u00e7os<\/strong>
Outras m\u00e9trica importante, que puxa os investimentos, \u00e9 a expectativa de perfura\u00e7\u00e3o de 182 novos po\u00e7os para produ\u00e7\u00e3o no per\u00edodo de cinco anos, com pico de 46 perfura\u00e7\u00f5es desse tipo em 2027. Ao lado desses po\u00e7os, a PPSA estima pelo menos 15 po\u00e7os explorat\u00f3rios, entre os quais tr\u00eas firmes e doze contingentes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Em 2025, tanto em \u00e1reas em produ\u00e7\u00e3o quanto na atividade de explora\u00e7\u00e3o, o n\u00famero de po\u00e7os ficou acima do projetado pela PPSA. Eram esperados 39 po\u00e7os de produ\u00e7\u00e3o no ano e cinco de explora\u00e7\u00e3o, n\u00fameros que chegaram a 43 e sete po\u00e7os respectivamente.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“O Brasil precisa avan\u00e7ar em perfura\u00e7\u00e3o de po\u00e7os explorat\u00f3rios em novas fronteiras. \u00c9 muito importante que a gente continue perfurando, e explorando tamb\u00e9m dentro do Pol\u00edgono do Pr\u00e9-Sal, que ainda tem muitas oportunidades”, disse Tabita.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Picos de produ\u00e7\u00e3o e \u00f3leo lucro<\/strong>
Para o conjunto de campos sob contratos de partilha, a PPSA prev\u00ea um pico de produ\u00e7\u00e3o de 2,123 milh\u00f5es de bpd (barris por dia) com declara\u00e7\u00e3o de comercialidade em 2030. Considerando fra\u00e7\u00f5es ainda sem a declara\u00e7\u00e3o de comercialidade, o pico de produ\u00e7\u00e3o para esse tipo de contrato acontece em 2033, com a 2,164 milh\u00f5es de bpd, coincidindo com o ano de pico da produ\u00e7\u00e3o total de petr\u00f3leo do pa\u00eds estimada pela EPE (Empresa de Pesquisa Energ\u00e9tica).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Com rela\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e0 estimativa de \u00f3leo lucro da Uni\u00e3o, considerando os dez contratos de partilha e os AIPs (acordos de individualiza\u00e7\u00e3o da produ\u00e7\u00e3o de Mero, Atapu, Tupi e Jubarte), a PPSA estima um pico de produ\u00e7\u00e3o de 499 mil bpd em 2033, dentro do chamado “cen\u00e1rio de refer\u00eancia” da empresa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nesse cen\u00e1rio, o d\u00f3lar m\u00e9dio \u00e9 fixo em R$ 5,5 e o barril de petr\u00f3leo tipo Brent caminha de US$ 58 por barril em 2026, se estabilizando em US$ 64 por barril nos anos seguintes e chegando a US$ 68,60 em 2033. No cen\u00e1rio pessimista (Brent abaixo da refer\u00eancia), o pico de \u00f3leo lucro da Uni\u00e3o seria de 492 mil bpd e, no otimista (Brent acima da refer\u00eancia), de 506 mil bpd. A partir de 2034, esse \u00f3leo da Uni\u00e3o advindo do pr\u00e9-sal come\u00e7a a decair.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Essas estimativas mudaram na passagem de 2025 para 2026, disse Tabita, com o pico do \u00f3leo lucro da Uni\u00e3o sendo deslocado de 2030 para 2033. Pesou, disse a executiva, a redu\u00e7\u00e3o nos pre\u00e7os projetados do Brent, al\u00e9m do aumento de custos nos principais projetos, antecipa\u00e7\u00e3o de projetos relativos ao mega-campo de B\u00fazios e inclus\u00e3o dos custos das plataformas B\u00fazios 12 e Mero 5, esta \u00faltima ainda em an\u00e1lise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Quando entra mais custos, voc\u00ea empurra o pico de \u00f3leo lucro para frente, mas isso tamb\u00e9m redunda em mais produ\u00e7\u00e3o e t\u00e3o logo de arrecada\u00e7\u00e3o. No final de dez anos [2026-2035], a arrecada\u00e7\u00e3o [do governo com \u00f3leo lucro da partilha] aumenta para R$ 518 bilh\u00f5es no cen\u00e1rio de refer\u00eancia desse ano, ante R$ 506 bilh\u00f5es no do ano passado”, disse a executiva a jornalistas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Esses montantes a serem arrecadados via \u00f3leo repassado \u00e0 Uni\u00e3o n\u00e3o consideram os tributos (R$289 bilh\u00f5es) e royalties (R$ 405 bilh\u00f5es) cobrados em cima da atividade no pr\u00e9-sal no per\u00edodo. E s\u00f3 consideram os 10 contratos em curso. Assim, se houver novas declara\u00e7\u00f5es de comercialidade, os valores efetivamente verificados ser\u00e3o ainda maiores. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Gabriel Vasconcelos, da Ag\u00eancia iNFRA A PPSA (Pr\u00e9-Sal Petr\u00f3leo) estima que os investimentos totais em campos de petr\u00f3leo comerciais do pr\u00e9-sal regidos pelo regime de partilha vai chegar a US$ 71 bilh\u00f5es, ou R$ 386 bilh\u00f5es no c\u00e2mbio atual, nos pr\u00f3ximos cinco anos at\u00e9 2030. Esse montante foi anunciado junto a uma s\u00e9rie de previs\u00f5es […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":14604,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7250,13271],"tags":[15116,3927,14333,17050,17422,13339,13251,7607,143,213,13393,17421,3030,344,8982,3036,14015,5887,7676,16487],"class_list":["post-33624","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-destaque-lista","category-oleo-gas","tag-atapu","tag-bacia-de-santos","tag-campo-de-buzios","tag-contratos-de-partilha","tag-ecopetrol","tag-exploracao-de-petroleo","tag-gabriel-vasconcelos","tag-oleo","tag-petrobras","tag-petroleo","tag-petroleo-da-uniao","tag-petronas","tag-ppsa","tag-pre-sal","tag-pre-sal-petroleo","tag-regime-de-partilha","tag-sepia","tag-shell","tag-tabita-loureiro","tag-total-energies"],"yoast_head":"\nPPSA: Contratos de partilha v\u00e3o atrair US$ 71 bilh\u00f5es at\u00e9 2030 - Ag\u00eancia iNFRA<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/agenciainfra.com\/blog\/ppsa-contratos-de-partilha-vao-atrair-us-71-bilhoes-ate-2030\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_BR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"PPSA: Contratos de partilha v\u00e3o atrair US$ 71 bilh\u00f5es at\u00e9 2030\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Gabriel Vasconcelos, da Ag\u00eancia iNFRA A PPSA (Pr\u00e9-Sal Petr\u00f3leo) estima que os investimentos totais em campos de petr\u00f3leo comerciais do pr\u00e9-sal regidos pelo regime de partilha vai chegar a US$ 71 bilh\u00f5es, ou R$ 386 bilh\u00f5es no c\u00e2mbio atual, nos pr\u00f3ximos cinco anos at\u00e9 2030. 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