{"id":37510,"date":"2026-03-09T13:06:55","date_gmt":"2026-03-09T16:06:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/agenciainfra.com\/blog\/?p=37510"},"modified":"2026-03-10T18:47:39","modified_gmt":"2026-03-10T21:47:39","slug":"stonex-choque-na-oferta-de-petroleo-se-consolida-e-alternativas-nao-compensam","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/agenciainfra.com\/blog\/stonex-choque-na-oferta-de-petroleo-se-consolida-e-alternativas-nao-compensam\/","title":{"rendered":"StoneX: Choque na oferta de petr\u00f3leo se consolida e alternativas n\u00e3o compensam"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Gabriel Vasconcelos, da Ag\u00eancia iNFRA<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

O barril de petr\u00f3leo tipo Brent com entrega para maio chegou pr\u00f3ximo aos US$ 120 por barril nesta segunda-feira (9) e operava na casa dos US$ 103 no fim da manh\u00e3, com alta superior a 10%. Para a analista da consultoria de pre\u00e7os StoneX, Isabela Garcia, trata-se de uma “consolida\u00e7\u00e3o” da expectativa de que o choque na oferta de produto pode perdurar por mais tempo que o esperado e da ideia de que rotas alternativas para cargas e eventuais libera\u00e7\u00f5es de reservas estrat\u00e9gicas n\u00e3o compensar\u00e3o a trava log\u00edstica em Ormuz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At\u00e9 a semana passada, diz a especialista, ainda havia uma expectativa de que a situa\u00e7\u00e3o seria resolvida rapidamente. Pouco mudou na din\u00e2mica da guerra entre EUA, Israel e Ir\u00e3, com ataques de lado a lado que avan\u00e7am no seu d\u00e9cimo dia. O est\u00edmulo de pre\u00e7o, portanto, vem de uma mudan\u00e7a na perspectiva de dura\u00e7\u00e3o da guerra. Isabela lembra que, nos \u00faltimos 30 anos, Ormuz nunca foi perturbado de forma prolongada.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“O cen\u00e1rio atual \u00e9 diferente. J\u00e1 s\u00e3o quase sete dias de fluxos interrompidos em uma regi\u00e3o que responde por cerca de 20% da demanda global (20 milh\u00f5es de barris por dia)”, diz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Soma-se \u00e0 mudan\u00e7a de percep\u00e7\u00e3o sobre o futuro da guerra, a sucess\u00e3o do regime iraniano que n\u00e3o deve mudar de trajet\u00f3ria agora, sob o comando de Mojtaba Khamenei, o filho de Ali Khamenei eleito pelos cl\u00e9rigos. “Em conjunto, esses fatores indicam que o conflito n\u00e3o est\u00e1 pr\u00f3ximo do fim”, diz Isabela Garcia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Paliativos
<\/strong>Ao tomar consci\u00eancia da restri\u00e7\u00e3o mais prolongada, j\u00e1 na semana passada os agentes come\u00e7aram a buscar alternativas, lembra a especialista. A Ar\u00e1bia Saudita, maior produtor do mundo, j\u00e1 teria come\u00e7ado a redirecionar parte da produ\u00e7\u00e3o por meio de oleodutos. Outros pa\u00edses, como a \u00cdndia e outros asi\u00e1ticos, com estoques mais curtos que a China, j\u00e1 trabalham em alternativas para ampliar a importa\u00e7\u00e3o de produto russo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alternativamente, fala-se em libera\u00e7\u00e3o de estoques para conter as altas nas grandes economias, sobretudo EUA e China, na linha do que aconteceu no in\u00edcio da guerra com a Ucr\u00e2nia, em 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Para Isabela, todas estas s\u00e3o alternativas importantes, mas a avalia\u00e7\u00e3o predominante no mercado ainda \u00e9 a de que n\u00e3o ser\u00e3o suficientes para neutralizar totalmente o impacto do fechamento do Estreito de Ormuz. “Em outras palavras, essas a\u00e7\u00f5es podem amenizar parte da press\u00e3o no curto prazo, mas n\u00e3o resolvem o problema estrutural”, diz a especialista.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Gabriel Vasconcelos, da Ag\u00eancia iNFRA O barril de petr\u00f3leo tipo Brent com entrega para maio chegou pr\u00f3ximo aos US$ 120 por barril nesta segunda-feira (9) e operava na casa dos US$ 103 no fim da manh\u00e3, com alta superior a 10%. Para a analista da consultoria de pre\u00e7os StoneX, Isabela Garcia, trata-se de uma “consolida\u00e7\u00e3o” […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":11403,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7250,13271],"tags":[18828,8406,3961,13251,3191,7548,18827,12295,17501],"class_list":["post-37510","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-destaque-lista","category-oleo-gas","tag-ali-khamenei","tag-arabia-saudita","tag-brent","tag-gabriel-vasconcelos","tag-oleo-e-gas","tag-oriente-medio","tag-ormuz","tag-preco-do-petroleo","tag-stonex"],"yoast_head":"\nStoneX: Choque na oferta de petr\u00f3leo se consolida e alternativas n\u00e3o compensam - Ag\u00eancia iNFRA<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/agenciainfra.com\/blog\/stonex-choque-na-oferta-de-petroleo-se-consolida-e-alternativas-nao-compensam\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_BR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"StoneX: Choque na oferta de petr\u00f3leo se consolida e alternativas n\u00e3o compensam\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Gabriel Vasconcelos, da Ag\u00eancia iNFRA O barril de petr\u00f3leo tipo Brent com entrega para maio chegou pr\u00f3ximo aos US$ 120 por barril nesta segunda-feira (9) e operava na casa dos US$ 103 no fim da manh\u00e3, com alta superior a 10%. 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