{"id":48754,"date":"2026-10-13T11:03:51","date_gmt":"2026-10-13T14:03:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/agenciainfra.com\/blog\/?p=48754"},"modified":"2026-10-13T11:03:55","modified_gmt":"2026-10-13T14:03:55","slug":"energia-decisoes-estrategicas-ficam-paradas-ate-definicao-das-eleicoes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/agenciainfra.com\/blog\/energia-decisoes-estrategicas-ficam-paradas-ate-definicao-das-eleicoes\/","title":{"rendered":"Energia: decis\u00f5es estrat\u00e9gicas ficam paradas at\u00e9 defini\u00e7\u00e3o das elei\u00e7\u00f5es"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Marisa Wanzeller, Geraldo Campos Jr. e Gabriel Vasconcelos, da Ag\u00eancia iNFRA<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Pautas caras aos setores da economia sob o guarda-chuva do MME (Minist\u00e9rio de Minas e Energia) est\u00e3o em compasso de espera at\u00e9, pelo menos, a elei\u00e7\u00e3o presidencial ser definida no dia 25 de outubro. Na lista est\u00e3o temas como Redata (Regime Especial de Tributa\u00e7\u00e3o para Servi\u00e7os de Datacenter), leil\u00e3o de baterias, contratos de termel\u00e9tricas e libera\u00e7\u00e3o de novos blocos explorat\u00f3rios de petr\u00f3leo.\u00a0

No cen\u00e1rio de derrota de Lula e vit\u00f3ria de Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro (PL), a tend\u00eancia \u00e9 que parte das defini\u00e7\u00f5es aguardadas pelo setor fique\u00a0apenas para o novo governo, a partir de 2027. Por ora, tudo o que for de assunto \u201ct\u00e9cnico\u201d e depender de publica\u00e7\u00e3o do DOU (Di\u00e1rio Oficial da Uni\u00e3o) ter\u00e1 de aguardar, disse um interlocutor.

Data centers<\/strong>
A san\u00e7\u00e3o da\u00a0Lei 15.504\/2026<\/a>, que estabelece o regime tribut\u00e1rio especial para os data centers, ocorreu em setembro, mas os setores interessados ainda aguardam pela publica\u00e7\u00e3o de um decreto que dar\u00e1 in\u00edcio \u00e0 regulamenta\u00e7\u00e3o do Redata. N\u00e3o est\u00e3o definidas com clareza, por exemplo, quais fontes de energia poder\u00e3o ser utilizadas para abastecer esses empreendimentos. O setor de g\u00e1s natural articula a inclus\u00e3o da mol\u00e9cula nesse rol.\u00a0

No governo atual n\u00e3o h\u00e1 um consenso formado sobre o tema. O MME \u00e9 favor\u00e1vel que o g\u00e1s seja contemplado como fonte de fornecimento, mas a Fazenda \u00e9 contra. At\u00e9 o primeiro turno, fontes davam conta de que tudo caminhava para prevalecer a posi\u00e7\u00e3o contr\u00e1ria ao g\u00e1s da \u00e1rea econ\u00f4mica, aguardando uma arbitragem final do presidente Lula. Agora, o tema fica em banho-maria pelo menos at\u00e9 o segundo turno, podendo ainda ficar para 2027 em caso de troca de governo.

Baterias<\/strong>
Tamb\u00e9m aumentou a incerteza quanto \u00e0 realiza\u00e7\u00e3o do leil\u00e3o de baterias, marcado para dezembro deste ano. H\u00e1 quem afirme que o modelo desenhado pelo MME pode ser revisto numa poss\u00edvel transi\u00e7\u00e3o de governo, adiando o certame.\u00a0

Por um lado, h\u00e1 a expectativa dos agentes quanto \u00e0 altera\u00e7\u00e3o da lei que imp\u00f4s o custeio da contrata\u00e7\u00e3o dos sistemas de armazenamento aos geradores, como defendem as usinas. Do outro, h\u00e1 um receio de que uma poss\u00edvel mudan\u00e7a de orienta\u00e7\u00e3o na pol\u00edtica energ\u00e9tica cancele o certame.

Uma fonte do segmento de baterias, no entanto, ponderou que esse \u00e9 um leil\u00e3o de seguran\u00e7a do sistema e que vai atender ao d\u00e9ficit de pot\u00eancia previsto a partir de 2028, ou seja, metade do pr\u00f3ximo mandato presidencial. Por isso, \u201cseria desinteligente desfazer a medida [de realiza\u00e7\u00e3o do leil\u00e3o] seja quem for o eleito, por criar o risco de falta de pot\u00eancia\u201d.

T\u00e9rmicas<\/strong>
Outro tema que tende a ficar para depois s\u00e3o poss\u00edveis ajustes na inflexibilidade de usinas termel\u00e9tricas. O governo atual tinha planos de reduzir o tempo que algumas usinas precisam ficar gerando energia toda vez que s\u00e3o acionadas pelo ONS (Operador Nacional do Sistema El\u00e9trico). Ap\u00f3s tentativa malsucedida de acordo com a Eneva para altera\u00e7\u00e3o de contrato de quatro usinas, via solu\u00e7\u00e3o consensual no TCU (Tribunal de Contas da Uni\u00e3o), estava no plano t\u00e9cnico do MME uma medida \u201cestrutural\u201d, que acomodasse diversos agentes.\u00a0

V\u00e1rios fatores ainda incertos definir\u00e3o se esse plano ser\u00e1 colocado em pr\u00e1tica ou n\u00e3o. Em caso de troca presidencial, a equipe que cuidar\u00e1 da pol\u00edtica energ\u00e9tica precisar\u00e1 analisar o cen\u00e1rio atual do sistema el\u00e9trico brasileiro e definir se uma medida nessa linha estar\u00e1 atrelada \u00e0 pol\u00edtica presidencial.\u00a0

Petr\u00f3leo<\/strong>
No setor de petr\u00f3leo, segundo fontes, a principal tratativa represada no momento \u00e9 o aval, via manifesta\u00e7\u00f5es conjuntas de MME e MMA (Minist\u00e9rio do Meio Ambiente e Mudan\u00e7a do Clima), para novos blocos explorat\u00f3rios de petr\u00f3leo, sobretudo na Margem Equatorial (litoral do Norte e Nordeste) e na Bacia de Pelotas (litoral do Rio Grande do Sul e sul de Santa Catarina). No tr\u00e2mite, as pastas liberam esses blocos, que passam a ficar \u00e0 disposi\u00e7\u00e3o da ANP (Ag\u00eancia Nacional do Petr\u00f3leo, G\u00e1s Natural e Biocombust\u00edveis) para inclus\u00e3o na chamada Oferta Permanente \u2013 esp\u00e9cie de prateleira de ativos pelos quais as empresas podem manifestar interesse \u2013, o que pode lev\u00e1-los a leil\u00e3o.\u00a0

Na semana passada, na abertura de leil\u00e3o da ANP, o secret\u00e1rio-executivo de Petr\u00f3leo e G\u00e1s do MME, Renato Dutra,\u00a0afirmou<\/a>\u00a0que a Bacia de Pelotas \u00e9 o \u201cpr\u00f3ximo passo\u201d para inclus\u00e3o de blocos na Oferta Permanente e que o governo discute as manifesta\u00e7\u00f5es conjuntas para mais de 50 blocos da regi\u00e3o nos pr\u00f3ximos meses.\u00a0

Na vis\u00e3o de fontes de mercado, \u00e9 uma quest\u00e3o de tempo para que o card\u00e1pio de \u00e1reas para explora\u00e7\u00e3o de \u00f3leo e g\u00e1s seja incrementado, tanto em caso de reelei\u00e7\u00e3o do atual governo Lula (PT), j\u00e1 convencido da necessidade de reposi\u00e7\u00e3o das reservas de petr\u00f3leo do pa\u00eds, quanto no caso da elei\u00e7\u00e3o de Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro (PL), que tampouco representaria barreira \u00e0 atividade.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Marisa Wanzeller, Geraldo Campos Jr. e Gabriel Vasconcelos, da Ag\u00eancia iNFRA Pautas caras aos setores da economia sob o guarda-chuva do MME (Minist\u00e9rio de Minas e Energia) est\u00e3o em compasso de espera at\u00e9, pelo menos, a elei\u00e7\u00e3o presidencial ser definida no dia 25 de outubro. Na lista est\u00e3o temas como Redata (Regime Especial de Tributa\u00e7\u00e3o […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6195,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7249],"tags":[13561,5189,13388,22197,13398,16167,13251,11594,11465,13269,7366,71,14879,1154,631],"class_list":["post-48754","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-destaque","tag-bacia-de-pelotas","tag-baterias","tag-blocos-exploratorios","tag-contratos-de-termeletricas","tag-data-centers","tag-eleicoes-2026","tag-gabriel-vasconcelos","tag-geraldo-campos-jr","tag-leilao-de-baterias","tag-margem-equatorial","tag-marisa-wanzeller","tag-mme","tag-redata","tag-termeletricas","tag-termicas"],"yoast_head":"\nEnergia: decis\u00f5es estrat\u00e9gicas ficam paradas at\u00e9 defini\u00e7\u00e3o das elei\u00e7\u00f5es - Ag\u00eancia iNFRA<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/agenciainfra.com\/blog\/energia-decisoes-estrategicas-ficam-paradas-ate-definicao-das-eleicoes\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_BR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Energia: decis\u00f5es estrat\u00e9gicas ficam paradas at\u00e9 defini\u00e7\u00e3o das elei\u00e7\u00f5es\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Marisa Wanzeller, Geraldo Campos Jr. e Gabriel Vasconcelos, da Ag\u00eancia iNFRA Pautas caras aos setores da economia sob o guarda-chuva do MME (Minist\u00e9rio de Minas e Energia) est\u00e3o em compasso de espera at\u00e9, pelo menos, a elei\u00e7\u00e3o presidencial ser definida no dia 25 de outubro. 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