{"id":48954,"date":"2026-10-16T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-10-16T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/agenciainfra.com\/blog\/?p=48954"},"modified":"2026-10-16T12:16:29","modified_gmt":"2026-10-16T15:16:29","slug":"preco-da-energia-dispara-com-queda-de-geracao-eolica-e-aumento-de-consumo","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/agenciainfra.com\/blog\/preco-da-energia-dispara-com-queda-de-geracao-eolica-e-aumento-de-consumo\/","title":{"rendered":"Pre\u00e7o da energia dispara com queda de gera\u00e7\u00e3o e\u00f3lica e aumento de consumo"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Geraldo Campos Jr. e Marisa Wanzeller, da Ag\u00eancia iNFRA<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

O pre\u00e7o da energia no mercado de curto prazo, calculado pelo PLD (Pre\u00e7o de Liquida\u00e7\u00e3o das Diferen\u00e7as), disparou<\/a> na noite desta quinta-feira (15) para perto do teto regulat\u00f3rio. O indicador, que \u00e9 refer\u00eancia para comercializa\u00e7\u00e3o no mercado livre, subiu 2.409% ao longo do dia, motivado pelo aumento do consumo de energia no hor\u00e1rio de pico, devido \u00e0s temperaturas elevadas, combinado com a queda na gera\u00e7\u00e3o e\u00f3lica no Nordeste.\u00a0

O PLD saiu do piso de R$ 57,31\/MWh (megawatt-hora) entre a manh\u00e3 e a tarde para R$ 1.437\/MWh durante a noite, segundo dados da CCEE (C\u00e2mara de Comercializa\u00e7\u00e3o de Energia). O teto fixado pela ANEEL (Ag\u00eancia Nacional de Energia El\u00e9trica) para 2026 \u00e9 de R$ 1.611\/MWh.

Rodrigo Sacchi, gerente Executivo de Pre\u00e7os, Modelos e Estudos Energ\u00e9ticos da CCEE, disse \u00e0\u00a0Ag\u00eancia iNFRA\u00a0<\/strong>que uma frente fria chegou \u00e0 regi\u00e3o Nordeste nesta quinta-feira, levando alta nebulosidade e impactando a gera\u00e7\u00e3o e\u00f3lica. Esse fator coincidiu com o momento de queda da gera\u00e7\u00e3o solar e de aumento do consumo energ\u00e9tico \u2013 influenciado pelo aumento das temperaturas nas demais regi\u00f5es do pa\u00eds. \u00a0

Esse cen\u00e1rio levou a gera\u00e7\u00e3o e\u00f3lica na noite de quinta a ficar cerca de 3 GW (gigawatts) menor na compara\u00e7\u00e3o com a de quarta-feira (14), de acordo com os dados da CCEE. Ao mesmo tempo, a previs\u00e3o de carga para o hor\u00e1rio de 19h foi 3 GW maior no SIN (Sistema Interligado Nacional).

Dessa forma, as hidrel\u00e9tricas n\u00e3o foram suficientes para atender \u00e0 demanda do sistema el\u00e9trico entre 17h e 22h, levando ao acionamento de t\u00e9rmicas com valores elevados. \u201cCom esse aumento de consumo por conta do ar condicionado e a redu\u00e7\u00e3o de gera\u00e7\u00e3o e\u00f3lica, a flexibilidade hidr\u00e1ulica n\u00e3o \u00e9 suficiente para atender aquele pico [do sistema] do entardecer e o in\u00edcio da noite\u201d, afirmou Sacchi.

O cen\u00e1rio levou a um aumento do CMO (Custo Marginal de Opera\u00e7\u00e3o), que avalia o custo para atender \u00e0 demanda do Sistema Interligado Nacional. Na quinta, o CMO passou de zero no per\u00edodo diurno para patamares superiores a R$ 1.500\/MWh entre 18h e 20h, segundo o ONS (Operador Nacional do Sistema El\u00e9trico).\u00a0

Tend\u00eancia de repeti\u00e7\u00e3o<\/strong>
O especialista da CCEE afirmou que esse movimento de oscila\u00e7\u00e3o maior do PLD \u00e9 comum e esperado para essa \u00e9poca do ano, sob a influ\u00eancia do El Ni\u00f1o. Para ele, h\u00e1 \u201cuma tend\u00eancia\u201d de repeti\u00e7\u00e3o desse comportamento at\u00e9 o fim do per\u00edodo seco e recupera\u00e7\u00e3o dos reservat\u00f3rios das hidrel\u00e9tricas. Isso vai depender de as frentes frias chegarem ao Nordeste do pa\u00eds, ou n\u00e3o.

\u201cPode acontecer uma semana n\u00e3o, na outra semana sim. Na semana em que ocorrer, pode acontecer em um, dois ou tr\u00eas dias. Isso depende muito da passagem de frente fria alcan\u00e7ar a regi\u00e3o Nordeste e impactar negativamente na gera\u00e7\u00e3o e\u00f3lica\u201d, afirmou.\u00a0

M\u00e9dio e curto prazo<\/strong>
Sacchi afirma que os pre\u00e7os s\u00e3o impactados de formas diferentes no curto e no m\u00e9dio prazo. No m\u00e9dio prazo, o cen\u00e1rio de forma\u00e7\u00e3o do pre\u00e7o considera com maior peso a hidrologia, que est\u00e1 positiva em boa parte do pa\u00eds, com as chuvas acima da m\u00e9dia para esta \u00e9poca do ano no Sul e Sudeste. Isso ajuda a segurar a queda natural dos reservat\u00f3rios e aumenta a flexibilidade hidrel\u00e9trica para atendimento na ponta. \u00a0

\u201cIsso faz com que do ponto de vista de m\u00e9dio prazo, a gente n\u00e3o precise colocar termoel\u00e9trica na base para gerar, para complementar a gera\u00e7\u00e3o hidrel\u00e9trica. Por isso que na maior parte das horas do dia o pre\u00e7o est\u00e1 baixo\u201d, explicou.

J\u00e1 no curto prazo, o que mais influencia o comportamento dos pre\u00e7os s\u00e3o fatores como as temperaturas e a previs\u00e3o de carga. \u201cQuando h\u00e1 essas oscila\u00e7\u00f5es de temperatura em que a carga sobe, ou a passagem de uma frente fria, que tamb\u00e9m \u00e9 algo t\u00edpico dessa \u00e9poca do ano, atingindo a regi\u00e3o Nordeste, isso implica diminui\u00e7\u00e3o de gera\u00e7\u00e3o e\u00f3lica. E a\u00ed a flexibilidade hidr\u00e1ulica n\u00e3o consegue sozinha [atender a demanda do pico], e \u00e9 preciso lan\u00e7ar m\u00e3o de termel\u00e9tricas r\u00e1pidas, que s\u00e3o mais caras\u201d.

O gerente da CCEE tamb\u00e9m esclareceu que essa oscila\u00e7\u00e3o dos pre\u00e7os no curto prazo n\u00e3o tende a impactar o mercado cativo. Segundo ele, a defini\u00e7\u00e3o das bandeiras tarif\u00e1rias (que podem aumentar a conta de luz) leva\u00a0em considera\u00e7\u00e3o o PLD m\u00e9dio mensal previsto para o m\u00eas seguinte.\u00a0

Prepara\u00e7\u00e3o<\/strong>
J\u00e1 os agentes do mercado livre precisam se \u201cpreparar\u201d para lidar com esse comportamento dos pre\u00e7os, na opini\u00e3o de Rodrigo Sacchi. Ele afirmou que essas varia\u00e7\u00f5es na opera\u00e7\u00e3o e nos pre\u00e7os precisam ser entendidas pelos agentes para que eles possam se proteger utilizando diferentes ferramentas dispon\u00edveis. Segundo Sacchi, essa volatilidade \u00e9 inerente \u00e0 crescente penetra\u00e7\u00e3o de fontes e\u00f3lica, solar e MMGD (Micro e Minigera\u00e7\u00e3o Distribu\u00edda) no sistema.

\u201c\u00c9 importante para os agentes entenderem esses comportamentos, a tipifica\u00e7\u00e3o, quais s\u00e3o as vari\u00e1veis que influenciam isso, para eles conseguirem se proteger, quer seja com decis\u00f5es operativas ou de comportamento de consumo, quer seja com heads contratuais, instrumentos financeiros ou modula\u00e7\u00e3o de contratos\u201d, afirmou.

Embora antever epis\u00f3dios como o pico desta semana seja dif\u00edcil, na avalia\u00e7\u00e3o do gerente da CCEE, o agente pode fazer \u201csimula\u00e7\u00f5es, sinalizar poss\u00edveis contextos, dias ou semanas \u00e0 frente\u201d para conseguir se proteger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Geraldo Campos Jr. e Marisa Wanzeller, da Ag\u00eancia iNFRA O pre\u00e7o da energia no mercado de curto prazo, calculado pelo PLD (Pre\u00e7o de Liquida\u00e7\u00e3o das Diferen\u00e7as), disparou na noite desta quinta-feira (15) para perto do teto regulat\u00f3rio. O indicador, que \u00e9 refer\u00eancia para comercializa\u00e7\u00e3o no mercado livre, subiu 2.409% ao longo do dia, motivado pelo […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":27341,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7249],"tags":[14,4012,1042,11594,7366,821,55,216,1169,865,631,22301],"class_list":["post-48954","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-destaque","tag-ccee","tag-el-nino","tag-geracao-eolica","tag-geraldo-campos-jr","tag-marisa-wanzeller","tag-mercado-de-curto-prazo","tag-mercado-livre","tag-ons","tag-pld","tag-preco-da-energia","tag-termicas","tag-teto-regulatorio"],"yoast_head":"\nPre\u00e7o da energia dispara com queda de gera\u00e7\u00e3o e\u00f3lica e aumento de consumo - Ag\u00eancia iNFRA<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/agenciainfra.com\/blog\/preco-da-energia-dispara-com-queda-de-geracao-eolica-e-aumento-de-consumo\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_BR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Pre\u00e7o da energia dispara com queda de gera\u00e7\u00e3o e\u00f3lica e aumento de consumo\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Geraldo Campos Jr. e Marisa Wanzeller, da Ag\u00eancia iNFRA O pre\u00e7o da energia no mercado de curto prazo, calculado pelo PLD (Pre\u00e7o de Liquida\u00e7\u00e3o das Diferen\u00e7as), disparou na noite desta quinta-feira (15) para perto do teto regulat\u00f3rio. 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